Posted by Teddy Panos, Sun Staff
A few Columbus Day thoughts as Red Sox nation sets sail on talk of shipping Jonathan Papelbon out of town:
-It's only a matter of time now. Papelbon shot off his mouth about wanting big money, had a subpar (for him) season, then coughed up a lead on the way to elimination. Soon the whisper campaign will begin in management friendly corners of the media. And before you know it, the former Lowell Spinner will be on his way to another baseball town, replaced by the new favorite (and cheaper) flavor of the month, Daniel Bard.
Don't be so quick to give up on Little Papi (Big Papi is another story, entirely). His off year would be a fantasy come true for any closer not named Mariano Rivera. I believe poor pitch location, as opposed to a loss of "stuff," is what led to the Game 3 collapse and the 2009 struggles. Remember, those earned runs given up Sunday were the first earned runs Papelbon has ever given up in post-season play.
Let's see how the fiery closer responds in 2010 before making any hasty decisions. 9th inning pitching was the least of Boston's issues this year.
-Instead of focusing on Papelbon, Red Sox Nation should turn up the heat on a front office that tends to get complacent after winning a World Series.
While it seems silly to complain after two World Series titles in 6-years, especially after an 86-year drought, the team with the priciest "game experience" in all of baseball should never, ever cut back on payroll like Theo Epstein does after winning it all.
In 2003, when the Sox lost the ALCS to the Yankees, total team payroll was just under $100-million. Spurred on by that heart-breaking setback, they went on an off-season spending spree, bringing the payroll to $127-million. Not so coincidentally, they finally brought a championship to Beantown.
In 2005, payroll dropped to $123-million, and the Red Sox suffered an opening round playoff loss to the White Sox. In 2006, total salaries dipped once more to $120-million and the Sox missed the playoffs completely. As the goodwill from the title began to fade, another shopping binge ensued, and Boston's Boys of Summer celebrated after the Fall Classic in 2007, as the $143-million team won it all. $10-million was trimmed from the books that offseason, the payroll dipped to $133-million in 2008 and the team lost in the ALCS to Tampa, followed by another drop to $121-million in 2009 and an opening round sweep at the hands of the Angels.
See the pattern there? Spend money, win it all. Cut back on payroll, get eliminated early. Don't get complacent like the front office, Red Sox fans. Hold their feet to the fire and demand they go all out to win every year. If they don't, they should at least cut back on ticket prices at the same time they cut back on payroll. It's only fair, isn't it?
-Red Sox offseason priority #1: go get a big bat! Offseason priority #2: go get a big bat!
That's the view from here...how do you see things? Why did the team built for the playoffs fall short when it mattered? Is Papelbon done? Should the Sox turn closer duties over to Daniel Bard? What do they need to do this offseason to get back on top?
The main issue I had with this year's team is the fact that they didn't try very hard to win the division. When the Yanks were scuffling and the Sox went into KC with a chance to put some pressure on them they blew that one really big lead to the Royals. Then the following weekend they went through the motions vs the Yankees. Trying to understand why they didn't try harder knowing a matchup vs the Tigers or Twins would have been better for them than the Angels. Plus, an Angels/Yankees LDS would likely have gone at least 4 and maybe 5 games rendering the winner easier to beat in the LCS. I'd like to know why they waived the white flag so quickly/easily on the division race.
As for the team... I think Papelbon is trying to say stuff precisely to be shipped out of town. If they could get a nice bat for him (shortstop?) I think I'd move him. His value will never be higher and I think Bard can do the job. Or you could always trade Pap early on and re-sign Wagner with the hope Bard becomes closer by mid-season. Either way it's going to be very tough to bring him back and he's still going to be looking for a boatload of $$$. I think he's an arm injury waiting to happen.
They do need to pay the $$$ to keep Bay. If you can find a taker for Lowell or Drew do it but I don't think that's very likely unless they eat most if not all the salary.
I'd also consider making a strong run at King Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay as another premier starter would be a good thing to have when in the same division as the Yankees as long as you actually try to BEAT THEM!
Can't say I disagree with a thing you say, DB. My only caution is if the do trade Papelbon, it better be for a legit major leaguer, not as part of a salary dump. Quite frankly, I'm tired of them crying poor mouth and continuously choosing the cheaper way out, except when it comes to stiffs like Drew and Lugo, who they had no problem overpaying for.
Instead of outbidding yourself on mediocre talent, how about going all out to sign a true stud.
Great line on the Sun's Topix forum, abut shopping at Walmart vs. Macy's:
http://www.topix.net/forum/source/lowell-sun/TFP9KFNAL2J172UAG
After the whole "Pap isn't a Rhodes Scholar" thing I figured he was on his way out. Maybe if he comes out and does a little damage control and doesn't ask for the moon maybe he's back again next year but I don't think it's likely he's here for the whole year if they can find a taker for him. I just hope he doesn't ever end up in pinstripes (although I have a feeling he very well may) as I think he'd pull a Favre and want to "stick it" to the Red Sox.
I do worry that Bard will have a re-appearance of the control troubles but he was so solid this year that I think they can pawn one of the two for some needed bats or a starting pitcher. I would like to see a veteran (keep Saito and/or Wagner or sign someone) there in case Bard should falter.
Definitely agree on the "big bat" thing and if I'm in charge I still trade Clay Buchholz for whatever good offers I'm getting. I don't see him as a long-term big time starter for them for some reason. I would have dealt Bowden before he had a chance to show that he's not ready for the majors too...
As much as I disagree with your payroll analogy, I agree that Papelbon is not the problem and that the Sox also need a clutch bat in the lineup. Ortiz used to be that bat, more so than Manny, but he is no longer even half the threat he once was. I think the V-Mart acquisition addressed part of that need, but they just needed to add a batter to protect him in the lineup or someone to hit ahead of him.
I'm a little nervous about making a catcher such a key cog in the lineup. V-Mart is about as good as you're going to get offensively at that position, but he's also been very up and down year-by-year in his career. This year, he played a lot more first base than before, which I think helped. But if Varitek is done, and he likely is, Martinez will have to catch a lot more next year, which will likely affect his offense and late season production.
We've gone back and forth on the payroll thing before, but I've never actually broken down the year by year numbers to support my theory. Granted, 7-years is a pretty small sample, but you can clearly see that a huge jump in payroll means success for them. (To Theo's credit, I think it shows that he knows what to do with that money, which Cashman in New York hasn't always been able to do)
But the evidence is pretty irrefutable, wouldn't you admit?