Posted by Kevin Jacobs, Sun Staff

Unfortunately for baseball, Alex Rodriguez is guilty. That much is clear. In today’s interview with ESPN’s Peter Gammons, Rodriguez said his piece and I’m guessing he’ll leave it at that. He did arguably the best thing he could in this situation. He took the Andy Pettite route rather than deal with all the twists and turns of the Rodger Clemens path. Kind of like tearing off a band-aid, his admission was quick and painful. But should we believe him?

When in doubt, I always go back to the stats. Stats are the nuts and bolts of baseball, at least in the mind of sportswriters, and normally provide some sort of answer. So when I recently went back to analyze Rodriguez’s stats I was expecting to find something telling.

From 2001 to 2003, the three years A-Rod admits to steroid use, he averaged 52 home runs, 131 RBI’s, a .305 batting average, 127 runs, 83 walks, 15 steals, and 126 strike outs. These numbers are remarkably similar to his career averages of 44 home runs, 127 RBI, a .306 average, 127 runs, 78 walks, 22 steals, and 130 strike outs. They’re actually nearly identical, except for the one big steroid category, home runs.

Over those three years Rodriguez averaged eight more homers than his career average of 44, and achieved his all-time season high of 57 in 2002. A result of steroid use, no doubt…right?

I wouldn’t be too sure. Remember that A-Rod was playing in Texas. The Ballpark in Arlington is arguably one of the better “hitter’s parks” in Major League Baseball, and eight more homers isn't exactly a crooked number. ESPN.com provides some interesting stats on Rangers Ballpark to back this up, here.

So it makes sense that A-Rod was able to pop a few more fly balls over the fence in Texas. Also, Rodriguez hit 54 homers in 2007 for the Yankees, in a park that’s not exactly kind to right handed hitters.

One thing that has made A-Rod one of the best players in history is his remarkable consistency. No matter where he’s played, whom he’s played with, or what the media has said, he produces in the regular season. But such consistency makes me wonder, is A-Rod telling the whole truth?

Wouldn’t we have seen some notable impact of steroids during those three years? A more noticeable jump in his numbers somewhere, like Barry Bonds’ 73 dingers in 2001? Maybe A-Rod is somehow immune to the effects of steroids. Or perhaps there were, and have been, more years of steroid use for A-Rod. Maybe he turned to performance enhancing drugs during his difficult times in the Big Apple, too.

After all, he’s faced more scrutiny and pressure there than any other time during his career. He’s been labeled a “choke artist” by fans across the country, especially in New York. Wouldn’t it make sense that he kept juicing?

Over the next few months his story will be tested, more users will be named, and possibly more light shed on the whole matter. Maybe he’s telling the truth, maybe not. But if you’re going by just the stats, Rodriguez’s numbers tell a different

What do you think? Is A-Rod telling the truth, or has is there more to his story? Take a second to let us know.