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Let’s start this off with a disclaimer; Mark Twain was on to something when he talked about “lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Show me any good argument, and I’ll show you a set of numbers to refute it.
However, the biggest lie out there is this notion that the New England Patriots lack of a running game will come back to haunt them should Mother Nature unleash her full fury on Foxboro come playoff time. To disprove this theory, I’m going to go against Mr. Twain and cite a few statistics. (Hey, it’s easy to win an argument against a dead man. Besides, how much game film did the guy watch while rafting down the Mississippi, anyway?)
We begin by paraphrasing a certain coaching genius who’s forgotten more football than most of us armchair quarterbacks ever pretended to know. Any time Bill Belichick is asked whether he’s concerned about the lack of a running attack or balance in the offense, the reply is always; “I’m concerned about scoring points. I don’t care how we do it. Whether it’s running the ball, passing it, kicking it, all I care about is scoring more points than the other team.”
It’s been a constant theme of Belichick’s since he got here, regardless of whether the running back is named Antowain Smith, Corey Dillon or Laurence Maroney. “All I care about is scoring more points than the opposition.” It’s an answer so simple, it almost sounds stupid.
Plenty of football folk subscribe to the Woody Hayes offensive philosophy of three yards and a cloud of dust. Well, would it surprise you to know the 2007 Patriots average a hair over four yards per carry? That includes the assorted QB sneaks, scrambles and kneel downs that account for 38-rushes and 90-yards. Take away those scampers averaging less than 2.5, and the number climbs to 4.2 yards per carry, or 12.6 every three plays, more than enough for a first down. (My math teachers must be so proud!)
You see, it’s not that the Patriots CAN’T run the ball. They CHOOSE not to. Why should they? When you have arguably the best quarterback in the history of the game, why not take advantage of his skills? To stubbornly run the ball simply to prove that you can is nuttier than a chemically induced Amy Winehouse.
I’d like to use another statistic to refute the notion that the Patriots are a finesse team and not a physical one. Do the numbers 4 and 9 mean anything to you? They should. That’s the number of wins and losses, respectively, of teams in their game played immediately following a matchup against the Patriots.
Included in those nine losses are defeats the Chargers, Colts and Steelers, three darned good football squads, suffered after a beating administered by their “finesse” counterparts from New England. One could argue there are many variables involved in those numbers, but don’t underestimate the impact getting knocked around by the Patriots physical offensive and defensive lines plays the following week. Heck, the Chargers only recently recovered from their Week 2 beat down at Gillette Stadium.
Now, that doesn’t mean the Patriots can’t be beat. I still see the Colts as a legitimate threat in January. But if Indianapolis comes into Foxboro and does what no other team has been able to do all year, it won’t be because Joseph Addai and company had more rushing yards than the Patriots.
It’ll be because they scored more points.
That’s the view from here...how do you see the Patriots running game?





Comments (8)
Hey let's not get carried away teddy. I'm sure that both your math teachers and english Lit teachers are equally dissapointed in you. I ado agree with your take on this as i am not concerned at all about this alleged lack of a run game. I'm interested to see how dboiver feels though.
Posted by Fat Professer | December 17, 2007 4:56 PM
Posted on December 17, 2007 16:56
OK- I'll bite on the bait :-)
The Patriots running game is simply "okay" because the passing game is so prolific. If you have 3 WRs with the ability of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker as well as Brady as your QB you OUGHT to be averaging HUGE yards per carry because teams are trying to mitigate the damage your offense can do by attempting to take away what you do well (i.e. the old "Don't let so-and-so beat us"). It just happens that in the Pats' passing game they have 3 or 4 so-and-sos every play.
If the Pats play a game in conditions similar to the conditions Sunday against a team that isn't in the bottom 5 in the NFL in rushing defense do you think they run for 100+ yards? IF they manage to get perfect (or at least good for this time of year) weather that allows them to continue to throw the ball 50 times a game then, I agree, who cares about the run- you won't need it. But if the winds are howling and you're in a close game against a good team and determine you want to try to sustain a long drive, kill the clock, and finish the other team off it's clearly not the thing they do well. To compare back to the Colts... In a game in which they have a lead at the end they still have the threat of the pass but can run that stretch play and keep a long drive going. Maybe the Patriots can do so but they have not shown that ability (again, that haven't needed to) or the desire to do so.
To follow up on your summary... Yes, the goal is to score more points but there are many ways to get there and one of the best ones when playing the Pats is to limit what they can do and the best way to do that is to run and sustain long drives. Would be interesting to see these philosophies meet in Foxboro because, in a lot of ways, the Patriots right now play like the "old Colts" and the Colts play more like the Patriots did a few years back (albeit the Colts' current receivers are better than the Patriots receivers of the past).
Posted by dboisver | December 18, 2007 11:06 AM
Posted on December 18, 2007 11:06
Hey this is my first time on the site reading your work Teddy, and to be honest, I would not have even known about this blog had I not been tuned in to WCAP today. So impressed was I with the show and the lineup of guests today that i had to google you and then found out about the blog. First of all, how great is it that Mr. Kenny Lavalee took the time out of his day to come talk to the citizens of Lowell. Now I have been a fan of his long before today, but there's just another example of what a great, down to earth individual he truly is. The same is true for your second guest, Irish Miky Ward. What a breath of fresh air. Now, there's a young man who totally goes against general perceptions of modern athletes. He takes the time out of his day to talk to us normal folks on a talk show as well as do tons of charity work, etc. I felt proud to be from lowell this morning. Keep up the good work.
Posted by Anthony | December 18, 2007 12:41 PM
Posted on December 18, 2007 12:41
You're from Lowell and you never heard of our blog before? Don't you read the paper? We're in there every Tuesday inviting folks to stop by and see what we have going on!
Posted by Teddy P. | December 18, 2007 2:39 PM
Posted on December 18, 2007 14:39
Ha.. i guess I should have known about this blog before being from lowell, but i must confess, i read the sun for the local news and tend to discard the sports section, and read the Herald's. (I apologize) I guess I don't know what I've been missing. And I've noticed that there is also a Lowell Sun talk show that I can tune into on line. Wow!! This is too much for me to handle in one day :)
Posted by Anthony | December 18, 2007 3:55 PM
Posted on December 18, 2007 15:55
Again, I can only point to what they've accomplished. To help my case, let me present some more stats that were posted on Mike Reiss' "Reiss Pieces" blog today:
Only one time in the last 20-years have the Patriots averaged more yards per carry than the 4.0 of this year...that was in 2004 when the Corey Dillon led attack rushed for 4.1 per carry.
They've gained four or more yards on 47.5% of their attempts, the highest total in the NFL
Laurence Maroney is averaging 4.21 yards per carry for his career, the second highest total in franchise history, behind only Corey Dillon and Craig James. You know what they averaged? 4.21
Now we can argue numbers all day and whether tougher opposition in bad weather will provide a different result. We have no idea what the weather will be come January. What we do know is the Patriots are 14-0 and have beaten everyone in their path in good weather, average weather and poor weather.
Now, if you want to go ahead and think the dome Colts, warm weather Chargers & Jags, or anyone else is going to come into Gillette and beat them, there's a ton of money to be made in Vegas taking that stance. However, I dont' recall any of the great 49ers teams taking criticism for their lack of running game, and they won plenty of playoff games in snow and cold. Perhaps that's why Vegas has the Pats at 1-3 odds to win the Super Bowl.
Posted by Teddy P. | December 18, 2007 4:32 PM
Posted on December 18, 2007 16:32
I guess my main point is AVG yards per carry is not a very telling statistic. If you have games in which you run the ball less than 10 times...
How many average rushes do the Patriots have per game? If that 4.2 yd average number really meant anything don't you think they would run more often?? If you are picking up 8-9 yards on 1st and 2nd down every time leaving yourself with 3rd and 1 or 2 why wouldn't you run the whole game long? It's much less risky than the pass, overall, it wears down the defensive line and allows your offensive line to "do what they like" and be more agressive rather than passive as they would when pass protecting.
When they were running up 40+ point victories by passing the whole game wouldn't it have made more sense to use this terrific ground game to allow them to avoid potential injuries and just put an end to the games rather than prolong the time that both your offense and defense will be playing? I don't look at the average at all- I look at whether they ever have relied upon the run game all season and, outside of the first couple of games and the last game, they have not relied upon it at all. That to me says "LACK" in big, bold letters.
You're right- numbers can always be twisted to fit whatever case you want but the question you have to ask is... Are any of the potential playoff teams the Pats will play going to scheme to stop the run? I'm sure they'll try to put in a wrinkle or two to show the Pats something they haven't seen before but, guess what they will be spending 95% of their time trying to stop??? The pass. Seems to me that if you're a more balanced team and the defense has to worry about more aspects of your game it makes it harder to defend against you. Even the most ardent Patriots fan has to admit that the passing game looked far more human versus the Eagles, Ravens, and Jets than at any other time of the year. The trend is NOT going in the right direction so to know that you can rely on the other aspect of your game if the pass isn't working would be nice.
Not saying any of those teams will come into Foxboro and win but I'd say that the Jags or Colts are constructed pretty well if they catch some weather help to more than give New England a run for their money. In fact I argue that it would be the Patriots who'd rather be playing in a dome these days than the Colts. No matter what happens it will be interesting to see.
Posted by dboisver | December 19, 2007 11:00 AM
Posted on December 19, 2007 11:00
Glad you asked DB. Because, again, I think there's a perception of the Patriots out there that simply isn't true.
Pats have run the ball 400-times in 14-games, an average of 28.57 per game. A far cry from the 10-times a game you theorize. (P.S. They've passed on 511 plays, for roughly a 4:5 ratio...pretty balanced in this day and age, wouldn't you say?) By comparison, the Colts have rushed it 405 times and passed 471..the Jags 471-404...the Steelers 454-391...the Cowboys 366-462. (Your Eagles, BTW, 374-501)
You worry about killing the clock? Time of possession is 32:32 for the Pats, 27:21 for the opposition, better than the Colts, slightly better than the Jags, and less than the Steelers with their 34:00 of possession per game.
As for your argument about teams scheming to stop the pass as opposed to the run, of course they are. That's what they should do. Doesn't mean they're going to be successful. And it doesn't mean the Pats can't run. For the Pats to stubbornly run the ball just so that people can feel better about a balanced offense is silly. If you play basketball and you score 30-points a game driving to the hoop, why would you settle for jumpers more often than taking it to the rack? Until someone proves they can stop you from driving to the hoop, you keep doing it, don't you? And if you have a respectable enough jumper to keep them honest (which the Pats do), you're still going to score 30 a night.
Again, here's the thing Belichick always says and is worth repeating; What does it matter how you move the ball, as long as you outscore the opposition. The Pats are on pace to break the record for total points in a season and...let me repeat...AND ARE 14-0. They're obviously doing something right.
This has been a passing based team during Belichick's entire tenure here, and they've won 3-Super Bowls going on 4. Believe me, if BB can figure out a way to win a ring with Antowain Smith, he's certainly going to figure out a way to win with Laurence Maroney. I realize that task still isn't complete, but as I said, are you going to bet against them?
Posted by Teddy P. | December 19, 2007 1:13 PM
Posted on December 19, 2007 13:13