Posted by Teddy Panos, Sun Staff

If last year’s process that led to Houston drafting Mario Williams instead of presumed #1 pick Reggie Bush taught us anything, it’s that anything can happen at the top of the NFL draft.

Most people (including this fool) believed the Williams flirtation was just a way for the Texans to lower the cost of signing Bush. Then Houston went ahead and stunned everyone the day before the draft by announcing that they’d signed a contract agreement with the Defensive End. The Heisman Trophy winner went second to a very pleasantly surprised New Orleans team.

This year, the dynamic is even more intriguing, because there are now three guys in the mix. The belief over the past few months is that the Raiders would select LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell. However, Al Davis and crew are reportedly negotiating with Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson and Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn as well. ProFootballTalk.com is even reporting the Silver and Black have gone so far as to make a lowball offer to Quinn.

Most every scout and analyst believes Johnson is the safest bet, the one player in this draft sure to be a stud. Can the Raiders, with such an obvious need at QB, afford to draft a WR at #1 and pay him #1 money? Then again, there’s also a belief they’ll be trading Randy Moss to Green Bay, opening up a slot at receiver, so who knows.

Smart money still says Oakland goes with Russell, but as we saw in ’06, teams sometimes aren’t very smart with the top overall pick.

What do you think the Raiders will do with the #1 pick…Russell, Quinn, Johnson or trade it? What should they do? How do you see the rest of the top-5 playing out? (We’ll get to the Patriots a little later)