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Theo Gives "Curt" Response

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Posted by Teddy Panos, Sun Staff


News Flash: Curt Schilling tells WEEI radio he will file for free agency at the end of the season, as a result of a brief conversation with Theo Epstein yesterday. The 40-year old right-hander had asked the Red Sox to extend his deal for one more year at the 2006 salary of $13-million. For their part, the Sox insist they will make every effort to sign Schilling next fall.


Teddy’s Take: Boston is making a mistake here, one that could come back to bite them in the ass not just on the field, but from a PR standpoint as well.


It looks like Theo wants to take a wait and see approach with his aging (and a little out of shape) starter. Normally that would be a prudent move, especially if the guy was asking for a multi-year deal. However, he’s not. Schilling asked for only a one year deal without a raise.

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True, he could flame out as father time catches up with him, but even if that’s the case, it could cost much more than $13-million to replace him. Sure, we’re optimistic about Dice-K, Beckett, Papelbon and Lester right now. What if one or more of them flops however? What if an aging Tim Wakefield fades? Isn’t Schilling a pretty good insurance policy to keep around, especially as a mentor to the young power arms? Even a mediocre Schilling might be worth that kind of money for one year when you consider the ridiculous money being tossed around for average arms these days.


Now let’s look at the PR aspect. Let’s say an angry and motivated Schilling pitches lights out. All of a sudden, he gets to free agency as a valued commodity. He’s definitely going to cost more than what he’s asking for now. And make no mistake; he’s going to get it. So the Sox are faced with the prospect of paying more than they could have or losing him outright. That’s not very smart business. Not to mention if he leaves, you have to answer to the fan base once again why a hero of the 2004 team wasn’t worth the big bucks while you went above and beyond market rate for players like J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo.


Sure, signing Schilling now is a gamble. But every baseball signing is a gamble in one sense or another. I’ll take my chances with a proven winner over the Matt Clements, Gil Meches and Carl Pavanos of the world any day of the week…and twice on Sunday.


What would you do if you were in Theo Epstein’s shoes? What if you were Schilling…how would you react? How will this play out?

Comments (21)

Greek Thunder:

Why would you want to sign a 40-year old pitcher who shows up overweight to spring training in February (season starts in Arpil right)? Ask MadDog Mike or anybody else who knows nothing about sports and they'll back me up.

dboisver:

Well- it will definitely cost them more than $13 mil to sign him for next year now.

But, on the other hand, if he does not make it through 2007 injury free he will not get $13 mil from anyone next year.

I can understand where the Sox are coming from on this one. I don't think $13 mil before the spring even starts is a wise way of spending money. Think about the teams that will be looking for pitching next year that have the cash to afford Schilling- it's really not a huge field: Boston, both NY teams, maybe both Chicago teams, and maybe the LA Angels. I can't see too many other bidders coming forward. The Yanks would pay it just to spite the Red Sox if Curt is sound but I don't know how many of those other teams would be interested and that fit the criteria of being able to win a World Series. At this point in his career I can't see him going for big bucks on a team that isn't primed to make the playoffs...

Bottom line- I think the Sox are probably doing the most prudent thing they can right now. Will it turn out to be the best decision with hindsight? Who knows?

T2:

I say $13 mill is a bargain at the going rate. Schilling is still a good pitcher and will prove it. There's no way he'd allow himself to stay out there if he wasn't still a quatlity pitcher. His ego wouldn't allow it. It's a stupid stupid non-signing. Give the guy one more year! Would you prefer giving it to the likes of Meche for $15 million? I don't get it.

dboisver:

The thing is- why guarantee $13 mil at this stage when you can probably get away with about a $15 mil offer at the end of the year if he proves himself??

The list of 40-year-old pitchers that can still bring it is pretty short. He's already had one broken down season in Boston so why bet that he won't have another.

I seriously doubt they'd ever give Gil Meche $15 mil. That was the Royals deciding they needed to spend SOMETHING and thinking Meche was the best they could do. Thing is- in 2007 Meche at $15 mil is probably a bigger bargain than Schill at $13 mil... Time will tell but Schilling at one time was an unproven kid with "stuff" - sounds an awful lot like Meche. Schill didn't do anything much in Balt- he blossomed on the Phillies...

Teddy Panos:

DB, you usually make logical arguments, but I gotta admit you lost me here.

"why guarantee $13 mil at this stage when you can probably get away with about a $15 mil offer at the end of the year if he proves himself?"

The simple answer there is, cause you're gonna save yourself at least 2-million. I think you may not have articulated what you meant there very well. Want another shot at it?

Here's one more thing for you to chew on. When Schilling does enter free agency, his next contract will more likely be a 2-3 year deal. So it's not like you're going to be able to sign him for one year at 13-15 million. Some team will add on an extra year or two to stand out from the rest of the crowd, bringing the deal somewhere around the $30-million mark, if not more. It's the nature of free agency. Someone ALWAYS pays more than you think.

As for Meche at $15-mil being a better bargain than Schilling at $13? I'll take a broken down 45-year old Schilling than a "never-was" like Meche, any day of the week.

Mark my words; this one will come back to bite them in the rear end.


dboisver:

My argument was- the extra $2 mil or whatever you end up paying extra, if you deem Schill is worth it, is money well spent vs a guarantee of $13 mil right now.

If Schill gets hurt and you're on the hook for the $13 mil can you afford to go after another good pitcher or are you going to have to bottom-feed looking for help? You're already locked in to $13 mil for the guy who can't help you. If you add in the luxury tax $$$ you are in an even worse position.

I'd take a $15 million Meche over a disabled $13 mil Schilling any day of the week :-) He's young enough that he's not a "never-was". He could be categorized as that but not for another couple of years. Just wait until he wins 17 ballgames for the mighty Royals this year :-) (If it happens I'm going to place some bets in Vegas before next baseball season)

If worse comes to worse next year you offer up a couple of prospects and some $$$ to the Marlins and pick up one of their young power pitchers that they have an overabundance of.

I think the main thing here is the Sox left themselves with options that they don't have available if they commit to the deal now. Plus there is the added incentive that now Curt will have to try to get through this season with a good, strong, healthy year rather than being able to "coast" knowing he's got a 2007 deal. Guys in their walk year are always more desirable, I think. I think they also want to see what happens with their current starters- if they all pitch as well as they could potentially pitch, I don't know that they necessarily need Schilling next year to have a very good staff.

If someone wants to make him a 2-3 year deal at the end of the year, I'd say "Sayonara Curt. Thanks for 2004".

I'd rather they be in a stronger position at the end of the year than let a player who's come in to camp overweight dictate their strategy. Just my opinion.

Teddy Panos:

OK, you've redeemed yourself...slightly. Obviously, Theo and the Sox agree with you.

However, this Gil Meche thing...You realize he's already 28-years old and has spent his entire career in a very pitcher friendly ballpark in Seattle, don't you? Please tell me you're a die-hard Royals fan and that's why you're so optimistic.

dboisver:

Is there such a thing as a die-hard Royals fan? I just have to follow the whole AL for my fantasy BB league so I stay up on even the saddest of sacks in the AL... If the Royals keep their young guys that are coming up together (Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, some young arms, etc.) I could see them eventually moving up to the middle class of the AL somewhere.

I don't know what it is about Meche- I guess I see in him something the Royals see. Certainly if someone can see something in JOEL PINEIRO (and they do exist) I can't see why everyone bashes this guy. He really does have good stuff. Put him with a guy that cuts down his walks (he does have a ton of 'em) and I bet his numbers start to look much better.

Teddy Panos:

So you're part of that 5% that keeps drafting Meche in fantasy leagues. I always wondered who would deliberately sabotage their staff like that! Please tell me you're in a 12-15 team league.

Let me ask you, cause I love good fantasy baseball talk; who do you think is worth drafting from that team this year? I wouldn't touch any of their pitchers with a ten foot pole, but I think Shealy has good sleeper potential. Teahan and DeJesus I'm not sold on. As for Gordon, I don't know enough yet. I think if he sticks this year (what are they saying about that?) he's going to fall somewhere between Ryan Zimmerman's first full year production and David Wright's.

Am I far off on that?

MadDog Mike:

Too bad your sarcasm ruined it Thunder. That was the first intelligent thing I read from you so far. Boisver is right. That fat toad ain't worth the dough.

Teddy Panos:

Mike, where did you stand on this Rocket Roger romance?

Theo and gang were willing to move heaven and earth last year to bring an older, fatter version of Schilling to Boston. More money than Curt wanted, for half a year. More perks than Dice-K got. They would have given it all to him, simply for the romantic notion of bringing Clemens back to Beantown.

And yet, the guy who put his career on the line for them in that 2004 post-season isn't worth it?

dboisver:

I actually only drafted him once- I want to say it was 4 or 5 years ago. As he was about my #4 or 5 starter he was fine. I've been in this league for about 12 years now and it's very competitive so it keeps me up on teams.

As for the Royals... Teahen is good because he's a 3B but may play outfield if Gordon is ready. If Gordon makes the roster he's worth it because he's the real deal. Now- if you do an auction draft he's not worth huge $$$ but if you can get him cheap he'll be worth it. Same goes for Billy Butler.

Shealy is pretty cheap power so he's worth a look but certainly he's not one of the top tier of guys.

Who knows who will play in the middle infield so I'd avoid them at draft time. Buck at catcher supplies some power so he may be worth looking at.

Dotel may be worth a flier- he's on a 1-year deal and if he proves himself may get traded to a contender to close games (Red Sox??) later in the year. He most likely won't hurt you any anyway.

Teddy Panos:

There ya go gang...a fantasy baseball preview of the Kansas City Royals. Where else can you find such quality info for free? Good work DB. You've officially redeemed yourself for the Meche-Schilling comment...LOL! By the way, we're going to be doing a fantasy baseball preview show in a couple of weeks on SunTalk Live. I trust you'll be calling in?

How about the rest of you...Legend Killer? T2? Rick? You guys/gals know your baseball.

MadDog Mike:

Schilling got his reward for 2004. The WS kicked in clauses in his contract that upped his pay. Both sides got what they wanted. Now he wants more. He's not worth it. He'll never be successful like Clemens in his fortys. Schilling is about to break down. Fat guys and twice surgicaly repaired ankles do not make a good mix.

Teddy Panos:

MadDog, I share your concern about his health. My only point is the way the Sox throw money around, a $13-million investment in a guy like Schilling is a pretty good gamble. He's a marketable enough commodity where he can make some of that back for them, too.

Just look how many fans are clamoring for the Sox to sign him. They shelled out $14-mill a year for J.D. Drew, and that almost started a fan revolt (unfairly, I might add). Schilling's a much better bet next year than either Drew will be by the end of his contract.

Time will tell!

dboisver:

I'll try to be there- much depends on the sleeping habits of my 7 month old daughter :-)

Just realize when you take my advice that I have finished 2nd in my AL-only league a record 6 times in 12 years but have never won so take it all with a grain of salt.

Last year I pulled a "Yankees circa 2000" when I traded away all of my good, young talent including a $10 Grady Sizemore for Francisco Rodriguez and still came up about 5 points short of first. I think I have a grand total of 3 keepers on my team so I have to do my homework...

BIG ERN:

if you want a new contract you don't show up to spring training 150 pounds overweight. Theo would have to be smoking crack to even consider giving that fat pig a new contract at this point. The only people that would disagree with me are Dennis and Callahan. Schilling is a phony. "I just couldn't play for the yankees" Please!!! What about the fake blood on his sock during the ALS?? The man is constantly after attention. (drunk driver incident) Don't let the door hit ya on the way out Curt, and that goes for your ugly wife too.

dboisver:

I managed to forget outfields in my "KC Royals Fantasy Preview"

If they can be had cheaply both David DeJesus and Emil Brown are worth drafting. DeJesus more for a little speed and Brown more for power/RBI.

Teddy Panos:

I like DeJesus as a possible 5th outfielder w/speed (10-team league)...Brown, I'm not so sure about. I'm afraid they're going to give a lot of his AB's to Reggie Sanders.

Keep me posted if you hear anything!

dboisver:

I think Reggie Sanders is the most injured outfielder in the history of MLB (including JD Drew and Ken Griffey Jr) so I wouldn't let that stop someone from drafting Brown.

I don't think he'd be one of my top outfielders but if you need a #5 or a guy who can slide into the UT spot I think he'd be worth a pickup. He's been around .280 with mid teens HRs and 80+ RBI the last 2 years...

Teddy Panos:

Show me a fantasy roster with Reggie Sanders on it and I'll show you a losing fantasy team. He's one of those guys bad owners always pick up off waivers because he's put up a good couple of weeks. Then once you get him, he does absolutely nothing and gets hurt. Meanwhile, that young guy you were debating picking up instead of Sanders is now fully established and tearing up the league...one someone else's roster!