Posted by Teddy Panos, Sun Staff
My dear guests, welcome back to Fantasy Island!
Over the next few weeks, I’ll do a position-by-position breakdown, offering you the Royal Flush (5-best at the position), Asleep at the Wheel (as in; don’t get caught there) and The Plague (avoid at all costs!).
(As with all fantasy advice, things are relative. Should you look up in the 20th round and still see Nomar Garciaparra on the board, you'd be nuts not to gamble...just don't waste an early pick on him when you could just as easily place a better bet. Conversely, don't go gobbling up Dan Johnson in Round 3, but be aware of him if you have a hole to plug on your roster)
Naturally, I expect your feedback. What I don’t expect is for my league partners to use this information against me in upcoming drafts. We’ll start off with the 1st baseman:
Royal Flush
1)Ryan Howard
2)Albert Pujols
3)Lance Berkman
4)David Ortiz
5)Mark Texeira
I’ll rank Ryan Howard ahead of Albert Pujols here based solely on the fact he’s my keeper in the one league I’m allowed to protect one player. Most sites rank Pujols #1, and I can’t really argue too much, except to say the Phillies big man topped the Cardinals stud in HR, RBI and Walks, while holding his own in Average and Runs. SB’s is negligible (neither is going to get into double digits), so give the nod to Howard by a whisker....Berkman gets the edge over Big Papi because of his outfield eligibility (as you’ll find, I love players you can plug in at multiple positions…really helps when injuries crop up). Texeira completes the Flush over Justin Morneau, who I think opposing pitchers are going to work around with nothing protecting him in that lineup.
Asleep at the Wheel
1)Prince Fielder
2)Todd Helton
3)Chris Duncan
4)Ryan Shealy
5)Dan Johnson
Fielder and Helton don’t fall under the classic definition of sleepers (both are ranked Top-100 on Yahoo), but at #86 and #77 respectively, they’re much undervalued. Helton is due for a big comeback, especially if he gets traded (still a possibility) and I think the sweet-swinging Fielder is this year’s Howard (won’t lead the league in homers, but a superstar in the making). I came this close to placing him at #5 ahead of Texeira and Morneau. If either Fielder or Helton is still on your draft board after the 5th round, pounce like paparazzi on Brittney Spears....Duncan may bat 2nd, just ahead of Pujols, which translates into lots of pitches to hit (also eligible at OF)…The Red Sox goofed big-time not trading for Shealy when the had the chance a couple of summers back…And once Shannon Stewart gets injured (which won’t be long now), Johnson and his corrected vision will demonstrate why the A’s stuck with him through all those struggles last year.
The Plague
1)Jason Giambi
2)Nomar Garciaparra
3)Shea Hillenbrand
Needless to say, I’m not very high on former (current?), steroid/HGH using, old first baseman coming off wrist surgery…Nomar was a steal last year as a shortstop eligible playing every day at a less stressful position. With that option now gone and with so many great power options at first, this “muscle strain waiting to happen” loses a lot of luster…Hillenbrand may look good in April (always gets off to good starts, doesn’t he?), but come the middle of summer, he’ll be sulking on the bench (perhaps somewhere other than Anaheim). Don’t say I didn’t warn you!
That’s my fantasy baseball breakdown of first baseman…what’s yours? What names should have been included in my lists? Who am I way off about?
I think I'd add Derrek Lee to your "Asleep at the Wheel" list- probably at #3. If he's back healthy he's potentially a threat in all 3 triple crown categories. With Soriano to knock in he should have a nice year.
Lee is a guy I'm not sure which way to go with this year.
I couldn't include him as a sleeper because he's ranked #31 overall by Yahoo, even though he's number-7 at first base. And if he returns to 2005 form, you're right, he's a triple crown threat with Soriano and Aramis surrounding him in the order. Of course, that wrist injury makes him just as likely to fall into The Plague category.
The key word is "healthy"...I simply can't take him ahead of any of my Royal Flush, not with a serious hand injury in the near past. Might he prove me wrong? Sure. But you won't catch me using a 4th round pick (where the #31 player should go) on him. Now, if he's still there in round 6 or beyond, I'll take a long hard look as a CI or Utility guy with Howard already entrenched at 1B. That's a combo I could live with!
Well- there's the plus to drafting as close to the start of the season as possible- find out how these guys do when playing almost every day (even if only for 1-2 ABs) to see if they've healed.
I wouldn't take him over your top 5 either but I'd sure take him as one of the top 10 and I think I'd rather have him than some of your Asleep at the Wheel. By the way are you going to trademark these names?? ;-)
If you have a 1B/CI combo like that you'll have yourself a nice offense. You may be down to a choice between a batboy and a bag of balls for your last lineup spot but with that kind of top level production, who cares? Certainly puts you in a position of strength to deal for speed/runs/pitching later in the year when you have an insurmountable lead in HR and RBI.
How many games did Ortiz play at 1B last year. I can't remember my league's position requirement but I think it may be 20 and I don't recall Big Papi playing there that much. You may want to make that a part of your list as you do each position (as you mentioned Berkman as an OF possibility).
Remember now, Asleep at the Wheel is reserved for guys who probably won't even get drafted but might be worth a late-round flyer. Or, in the case of Fielder or Helton, players I think are much better than their ranking.
So yes, I'd take Lee over all those guys except for Fielder. (If Helton ends up in Boston or New York, I'd take him over Lee as well)
Unfortunately, I don't think I can trademark those categories...I'm not as smart as Michael Buffer (Let's get ready to rumble) or the NFL (Super Bowl...also trying to trademark "Big Game")
Right- I guess I am saying you should have come up with a name other than Royal Flush for your top players and have it contain 6 players maybe (Dirty Half-Dozen??) so that Lee could be included in the top tier.
I *could* be totally wrong about him but I really think he'll be the #3 guy in the NL behind Howard and Pujols and may beat them in AVG and/or RBI.
You need to get yourself a better agent and get some rights to that intellectual property :-) At least go out and register the domain names now :-)