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October 30, 2006
Patrick or Healey: Who Can Manage the Boom?
Is it any surprise that the Massachusetts economy is starting to pick up steam?
Only to Democrats, it seems.
Deval Patrick is still using old reports and numbers to paint a dismal picture of the Romney-Healey team's performance, but recent statistics show that the Democrat gubernatorial candidate is color-blind.
On Saturday, the U.S. Department of Commerces and University of Massachusetts reported that the state's economic growth for the three-month quarter that ended in September was a sizzling 3.4 percent - more than double the U.S. rate of 1.6 percent. Furthermore, it was the second consecutive quarter in which the Mass. economy outpaced the nation's.
Economists point out that the Massachusetts economy is driven by innovation and technology in the health, financial, and defense sectors. Well-educated people who earn high salaries provide the human capital to make these products or deliver these services.
So when Massachusetts hits a recession, like it did in 2000-2002, the economy takes a real hard dip, because good-paying jobs take the major hit. Millions of dollars are wiped out of the economy in those job losses.
The state lost about 178,000 jobs during the recession. Most of them manufacturing jobs that will be hard to replace, if ever. However, those jobs began to disappear in the late 1990s and losses accelerated with the recession.
Patrick likes to pin those job losses on the Romney-Healey team, but the Republican administration didn't take office until 2003. The recession hit its lowest point in 2003. The new Workforce Department data, however, shows that the Romney-Healey administration has been responsible for a net increase of 33,100 jobs since Sept. 2005 - with 25,000 of them coming since January 1, 2006.
Granted, that's not a huge number. In fact, Massachusetts still lags most industrialized states in job creation. But it's important to note that the economic growth data is surging, a forerunner of a boom in jobs.
The economic cycle appears to be storming ahead once again in the Bay State. The Romney-Healey team's tough fiscal policy in the early years when the recession was worsening is paying dividends.
If the growth data is an indication, Massachusetts could be headed for an extended boom period like it had from 1993-1999 before the roof caved in.
Now who do you think would do better as governor to maximize an impending boom period - Patrick or Healey?
Posted by at October 30, 2006 6:46 PM
Comments
Jim, if there is any kind of a boom and tax revenues increase, the same thing will happen as did in the 90's. The Legislature will line up for money for their pet projects and every last dime will be spent as always. Once things start to drop everyone will start crying about cuts and how everyone will be hurt. I think this would happen no matter who is elected but would probably go at a much faster rate with Patrick in there.
Posted by: JackC at October 31, 2006 9:00 AM
"sizzling 3.4%" - hardly beat inflation, with much of that spent for $3+ gasoline.
Posted by: JP at October 31, 2006 11:08 AM
Why don't you guys put some effort into clearing up the financial mess that has been left over from last year in the city of Lowell? It seems every few weeks there is a new disclosure of failed budget procedures that must be cleaned up this year.
Posted by: JP at October 31, 2006 7:11 PM
JP, when you say "you guys" do you mean The Sun or the City Council? I think the city manager is trying to get to the bottom of this as best he can. And the council is certainly trying to distance itself from all the blame that is being heaped on the Cox administration for setting the budget. The council, however, approves the budget. The council also voted several big money transfers last year that was opposed by the Cox administration. With a city election only 12 months away, the fiscal difficulties - and who is responsible - should be a major issue as I see it. Taxes are going to increase any way you look at it. Remember back when Cox came into office. He wiped out a deficit, was credited for creating a surplus and improving the bond rating. Lynch takes over, identifies fiscal problems, and will certainly turn things around. He will get credited for being the best thing since the introduction of the taco salad at Mambo Grille. Bad news becomes good news. The incumbents get re-elected. DEJA VU!
Posted by: jim campanini at November 1, 2006 8:55 AM
By "you guys" I mean the SUN investigative reporters. It would be a story that many residents would like to read. You could take each "surprise" and look at how it came about, and what went wrong in not recognizing it earlier.
I agree that the city council is responsible for much of this, as they were willing to go along uninformed when they made their decisions to spend money. However, those in the administration (maybe Cox, probably the past CFO, and most definitely the Auditor) must be held accountable for this terrible budget.
Posted by: JP at November 1, 2006 3:02 PM
