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September 10, 2007

Miceli optimistic up to the last minute

STATE REP. James Miceli has been called a lot of things
during his 16 terms in office, but a quitter he is not.

The Wilmington Democrat took stubbornness to a new level during the past
five months, embracing the underdog's role in the 5th Congressional District
primary until the very end.

Miceli's attempt to reach Capitol Hill began in mid-March, when former U.S.
Rep. Marty Meehan was tapped to be the next UMass Lowell chancellor. By April's
end, Miceli was already considered a marginal candidate in the five-candidate
Democratic field, despite his vociferous arguments to the contrary. He told
The Column at the time that "you can bet your mortgage" that he was in the
race to win it.

"We're going to put on one hell of a campaign, I tell you," he added.

Months went by and the 30-year Beacon Hill veteran lagged behind his four
rivals, in the sizes of their staffs, the number of press releases sent out
and campaign donations.

By the time the final campaign-finance reports were disclosed in late August,
Miceli had accumulated only $19,042 in contributions, although he had stated
in March that he was shooting for $350,000 to $500,000. Front-runner and eventual
winner Niki Tsongas, by comparison, had raised $1.6 million.

But Miceli was still vowing to surprise everyone.

"I'm in this thing to win," he told us two days before the primary. "I've
got ... the best track record of all the candidates."

The unavoidable thumping came and went on election day, with Miceli coming
in last in 25 out of the 29 communities in the 5th District. He did carry
Tewksbury -- one of his district's two towns -- while placing third in Billerica
and snagging fourth place in Dracut and Methuen.

That left him with only 3,296 votes, or about 16,500 behind Tsongas.

But Miceli was hardly demoralized. A half hour after Lowell City Councilor
Eileen Donoghue, the second-place finisher, conceded to Tsongas, Miceli was
still suggesting that he might be on his way to Capitol Hill.

When a Sun reporter handed him results from Billerica and Chelmsford, Miceli
relished the fact that he had beaten state Rep. Barry Finegold in Billerica
and that his percentage of votes was likely to come in higher than the polls
had predicted.

It took Miceli another 17 hours or so to give Tsongas a call to personally
congratulate her on her win -- hours after a Democratic unity rally in Lowell
from which he was conspicuously absent.

State Democratic Party Chairman John Walsh during the rally said Miceli had
called him and "pledged his support" to Tsongas.

Miceli's final view on the campaign? He was still the candidate with the
most experience and the best message.

"If I just had $350,000 to $500,000, I could have won it," he said.

THAT SIGH of relief heard across the district Wednesday
morning was from the Tsongas campaign, whose well-financed political machine
nearly was knocked off the rails by Donoghue.

In the contest's waning days, the councilor's campaign resembled a hard-charging
locomotive.

A month ago, most polls had Donoghue behind by 20 points or more.

Then, on the Friday before last Tuesday's primary, a WBZ-TV polls showed
that Donoghue had closed the gap to about 11 points.

On election day, she finished five points behind Tsongas, 36 to 31 percent.

Donoghue must be wishing she had another week or two to continue her momentum.
Furthermore, plenty of Donoghue's supporters are saying today that it's unfortunate
her campaign was a slow-starter compared to Tsongas'. The only unelected candidate
in the race seemingly flicked a switch and her machine was off and running.

On the flip side, there are those who say another two weeks would not have
mattered.

Campaigns time their strategies to the date of the election. Donoghue waited
until a week before the election to air her first television ad, and didn't
turn up the heat on Tsongas until the Aug. 16 debate in Haverhill.

Knowing full well the primary was on for Sept. 4, maybe she should've hit
the gas sooner.

STILL, TSONGAS deserves a lot of credit for running a top-notch,
positive campaign even when she was clearly the target of her rivals. As one
observer put it, it takes drive and determination to sustain a front-running
campaign. Tsongas, he said, kept her focus -- and dignity -- in doing what
she had to do to hold off the challengers.

Remember, Tsongas was going up against three state representatives and a
two-term mayor with more than 58 years of combined experience in the political
arena. She had none as an elected official. Also, the Middlesex Community
College dean had to buck two influential state senators who had backed Donoghue,
Lowell's Steve Panagiotakos and Methuen's Steve Baddour. While The Niki Machine
lost Lowell and Methuen, it showed remarkable broad-based support in the senatorial
districts, and even surprised Donoghue supporters by winning Lawrence and
Haverhill, the latter a key Baddour stronghold.

While the Tsongas name attracted attention, the late U.S. senator's widow
still had to deliver the goods during a grinding, 25-debate-wearying campaign.

ONE OF the major failings of Donoghue's campaign was her
inability to raise money, especially early.

As of Aug. 15, she had been outraised by every Democratic rival except Miceli,
forcing her to pump $490,000 of her own money into the campaign to stay competitive
(she eventually surpassed state Rep. Jamie Eldridge in fundraising).

On the stump, Donoghue said she was forced to use her own money because interests
outside the 5th District were trying to buy the election. While Tsongas relied
heavily on out-of-state contributions to build her $1.5 million war chest,
she also racked up more donors in district than Donoghue, according to a review
of campaign-finance records.

Donoghue finished with about 632 donors within the 5th District, accounting
for 76 percent of her donor list. Tsongas roped in contributions from 750
in district supporters, though that only amounted to about 15 percent of her
Rolodex. She had about 2,400 Massachusetts contributors and about 1,600 out-of-state
donors.

Even with her own money, Donoghue came up just shy of $1 million by the primary
election.

STRENGTH IN dollars won't be the only thing Republican Jim
Ogonowski will have to contend with as he starts his showdown with Tsongas.

The Cook Report, an independent, nonpartisan newsletter that examines federal
elections came out this week with its assessment of the Massachusetts 5th
District race.

"To say Ogonowski faces an uphill battle may be an understatement," the report
reads.

The Cook Report gives this district a Democratic power ranking of "3D+11."
Translation: Solid Democrat.

To put that in perspective, there is not one Republican in Congress that
currently represents a district as solidly Democratic as MA-05.

The Cook Report says despite Ogonowski's compelling story, "his viability
remains a stretch."

In the end, though, its all up to the voters.

BOSTON RADIO talk-show host Jay Severin usually stays out
of local politics, choosing instead to focus on national issues. But Ogonowski
has captured his imagination.

The Dracut farmer and retired U.S. Air Force officer spoke briefly by phone
on Severin's afternoon show, which is broadcast on WTKK 96.9 FM, the day after
he trounced his opponent Thomas Tierney in Tuesday's primary.

"You folks in the 5th District are very lucky," Severin said after Ogonowski
hung up. "Here is someone honest, sincere, and grounded in the fundamental
values of working families. Is this a guy you're ever going to hear about
screwing around, lying, cheating or comporting himself in a way that will
bring shame to his family? I think not. Like Jefferson, who put down the plow
to go to Washington, guys like Jim are the kind of guys that I want representing
me in government."

Of Tsongas, Severin said: "Probably a very nice lady who is a liberal Democrat
who wants to go to Washington to figure how much of our money needs to be
taken from us and given to someone else, how much weaker we can make our nation,
how much bigger our government needs to be and how guilty I need to feel because
I'm white and the oppressor."

Of course, you can probably tell from his comments that Severin is not a
big booster of the Democratic Party.

DONOGHUE WAS first elected to Lowell's City Council in 1995.
She's already announced that is not a candidate for re-election this year.
The question being asked today is whether her political career is over.

Maybe not.

Her solid showing against Tsongas was grist for the rumor mill in a couple
of areas.

If she had the desire, she could mount a sticker campaign for council in
November's election and likely capture a seat. Those close to Donoghue say
a sticker campaign is highly unlikely. But make no mistake about it: There
will be folks trying to get her to run.

Donoghue also could run for state rep against Dave Nangle in November 2008.
Fueling some of that speculation is that Nangle was one of several local pols
who overlooked both Lowell candidates and supported Finegold, of Andover,
in the Democratic primary.

But it won't be easy. Rita Mercier and present Mayor Bill Martin tangled
with Nangle for the open rep's seat in 1999 and were soundly defeated.

JOINING NANGLE in supporting Finegold was his political
friend, former City Manager John Cox, and state Rep. Thomas Golden.

Judging from the Lowell results, however, Cox and company did little to push
Finegold ahead in Lowell. Finegold snared 513 votes, finishing third in the
Mill City behind Donoghue and Tsongas.

But it seems big-name endorsements could be called into question all over
the district.

As previously mentioned, Baddour was unable to deliver Haverhill to Donoghue,
as Donoghue finished nearly 400 votes behind Tsongas there. Also working for
Donoghue in Haverhill was Baddour's political pal, former Methuen state Sen.
James Jajuga, the recently appointed head of the chamber of commerce in that
region.

And in Methuen, Baddour's hometown, Donoghue only beat Tsongas by about 250
votes. She needed a much wider margin.

The Spanish-speaking Donoghue also was unable to carry Lawrence, where she
had the support of that city's state rep, William Lantigua, as she finished
nearly 500 votes behind Tsongas.

Donoghue not only needed to carry Lowell big, which she did, but she also
needed the district's other big cities to overcome Tsongas' mass appeal in
the suburbs.

DONOGHUE MIGHT have missed out on an endorsement from Cox,
but she got a thumbs up from Cox buddy and Beacon Hill heavyweight House Speaker
Sal DiMasi.

The day after the election, a sunglasses-sporting DiMasi marveled at the
councilor's ability to get out the vote. Polls before the election placed
Donoghue at 29 percent, eleven points behind Tsongas. She turned out 31 percent,
and was only 5 points behind.

"She did a great job," said DiMasi.

THE CLOBBERING Donoghue gave Tsongas in Lowell, 5,439 to
2,889, for a difference of 2,559 votes, is being viewed as good news by the
city councilors who, like Donoghue, are strong followers of City Manager Bernie
Lynch. Those councilors -- Kevin Broderick, Rodney Elliott, Martin and James
Milinazzo -- want to give Lynch a two-year extension before November's city
election and 11 months before the manager's contract expires.

All those councilors declared their support for Donoghue early in the campaign.

Former Councilor Dan Tenczar, a local attorney and Donoghue supporter, was
emphatic during Donoghue's bittersweet campaign party last Tuesday that their
critics should take heed.

"If anybody's doubting her and the progressive five, they're sadly mistaken,"
Tenczar said.

Councilors Edward "Bud" Caulfield and Rita Mercier declared their support
for Tsongas late in the campaign. Councilor Armand Mercier never said who
he was supporting, although most believe it was Tsongas.

Others, however, don't see Donoghue's vote total in the congressional race
as extraordinary. In fact, they see it as a disappointing result. They point
to the 2005 city election, where Donoghue finished 900 votes behind Rita Mercier
with 7,195 votes, when the turnout was about 22 percent as compared to last
Tuesday's 19 percent.

The difference between 7,195 Lowell votes and 5,439 is striking. But, even
if Donoghue received the 1,700-vote difference in the 5th District race, she
sill wouldn't have overcome Tsongas' 2,400-vote margin.

By the way, the City Council's personnel subcommittee, chaired by Caulfield,
will discuss Lynch's contract extension tomorrow at 6 p.m. before giving the
full council a recommendation during its meeting Tuesday at 6:30 p.m.

THE FROSTY relations between City Manager Bernie Lynch and
Lowell's Statehouse delegation apparently haven't thawed. In fact, they are
probably frostier, following Lynch's decision to name Trinity Financial of
Boston as the master developer for the Hamilton Canal District project. It's
not so much the company that was named, but that the Statehouse delegation
-- Panagiotakos, Kevin Murphy, Nangle and Tom Golden -- weren't given a chance
to give their input on a project which they have won $1.5 million in state
grants over the years. That's what Murphy and Nangle said.

Although invited to a city-sponsored event Thursday in which Trinity representatives
were introduced to various business, civic and political leaders. Panagiotakos,
Murphy, Nangle and Golden declined to attend.

The senator, according to sources, is particularly upset that he didn't get
a courtesy call from the city once the master developer had been named. Panagiotakos
wanted the chance to break the news to former Massachusetts Senate President
Robert Travaglini, who is now a lobbyist and was representing a client who
had been in the running for the Hamilton Canal District job.

"It's just good relations to give Travaglini a call because he was very good
to Lowell in his time as Senate president," said Murphy. "The senator, I believe,
just wanted to explain things to him and keep smooth relations going. In this
business, you never know when Lowell might need a helping hand from anyone,
whether inside or outside Beacon Hill. But the senator wasn't given the chance
and he feels badly for Lowell."

Another observer was more blunt: "Lynch could do a better job with his communication
skills," he said.

VOLUNTARY RETIREMENT or forced out?

When it comes to Lowell High School Headmaster William Samaras, School Committee
member Regina Faticanti believes it's the latter.

During last week's School Committee meeting, Superintendent of Schools Karla
Brooks Baehr announced that Samaras is retiring at the end of the current
school year.

Faticanti, the only committee member to speak up, charged Baehr was forcing
the popular principal out the door.

"That's what's happening, and I'm not happy about it," said Faticanti.

Faticanti said Samaras, 65, isn't perfect. But he does more than a solid
job managing the 3,700-student school. Plus, all Samaras wanted was to work
one additional year beyond the current year to finish off a few projects.

Faticanti's remarks at the meeting drew no response from Baehr or from any
of her committee colleagues.

The Column called Baehr on Friday for a comment. She declined.

Contributing to The Column this week were Editor Jim Campanini, City Editor
Christopher Scott, Statehouse Bureau Chief Hillary Chabot, Statehouse reporter
Matt Murphy, City Hall reporter Michael Lafleur, and Tewksbury/Wilmington
reporter Alexandra Mayer-Hohdahl and Dracut reporter Dennis Shaughnessey.