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    « Will 'Blue' Washington Make America Proud? | Main | SunTalk Live Tonight »

    November 21, 2006

    Lynchonomics Unplugged

    City Manager Bernie Lynch writes a thoughtful, clear-headed commentary to Tuesday's Sun explaining how the city has gotten into its fiscal deficit. It is a fair, balanced and brutally frank piece that puts into laymen's terms what is the problem: the city council, relying on fiscal assumptions supplied by the prior city administration, built a fiscal 2007 budget that was out of balance. The funds needed to back up the assumptions didn't materialize, leaving the city in a $5 million to $6 million hole. Lynch also makes it clear that the city has been spending more money through the years than the revenues it has taken in. This has caused city officials to deplete the cash reserves repeatedly to balance the budget and keep taxes low.
    An independent audit by the firm Powers & Sullivan has confirmed much of what Lynch had previously documented. The city manager concludes that the council and taxpayers must face up to these fiscal challenges with an infusion of new revenues this year to close the gap. He is proposing at mix of tax and fee increases to raise about $7 million. Such a move would increase tax bills by about $210 a year for the average homeowner,however, the increase for most middle-class Lowell homeowners would probably be in the $300 to $400 range.
    While Lowell isn't broke - Lynch notes that there is about $5 million in reserves that should be maintained to protect the city's bond rating - the city must build up its free cash accounts to take on future projects or to deal with emergencies, according to Lynch.
    The city manager also describes the reasons behind Chelmsford's projected $1.3 million deficit and how the town is dealing with it.
    The question I want answered is this: Once taxes are increased to close the budget gap in FY07, does that revenue turn into a surplus in succeeding years if a requisite amount of spending cuts are made?

    Posted by at November 21, 2006 8:49 AM

    Comments

    As for raising revenue through fees, there should be a litmus test that any fee charged does not exceed the average cost to provide the service. That is because fees are the most regressive form of "taxation". At the same time, the city must review all the processes for performing these services and take the necessary actions to ensure that they are being delivered in the most efficient manner possible.

    As for raising revenue through taxes, that is not quite so regressive, but it is more so than even the flat income tax that has been the subject of tradeoffs in the recent gubernatorial debates. Apparently there has been some progress in cutting costs, as evidenced by the approximate $825K being proposed by the city manager for the current fiscal year. Your question goes beyond that to the FY 2008 budget and beyond.

    On the surface it appears that there is a bow-wave of costs that will be hitting the books in the next few years, in addition to the basic operating costs. The purchase of the property to make way for the new bridge, the payment for the parking garage, the new school construction, the continued efforts on sewer reconstruction, the ice at the Tsongas arena, the repairs to the Auditorium come to mind, and I am sure there will be others.

    State reimbursements may increase, but not to the extent that these costs will be covered, so further increases in the property tax are almost certain. This year's increase will put more pressure on the city council to reign in their pet projects, and I would recommend that start with a reassessment of the two schools that have nearly doubled in estimated cost in the past 5 years.

    Lowell will need to look to large scale commercial development in the order of Cross Point to provide an increased tax base, as there is no room to grow in the housing market tax base. I hope your newspaper will push for that, and use the JAM/Hamilton Canal area as the place to start.

    Posted by: JP at November 21, 2006 9:50 AM

    From the Hamilton Canal Redevelopment plan:

    "The successful Hamilton Canal District redevelopment will:

    1)Provide a viable, safe and comfortable pedestrian experience that links the Gallagher Terminal to downtown Lowell.

    2)Develop a new signature site that draws off the successful loft reconstruction downtown, while including a variety of old and new buildings that will complement the existing historic fabric.

    3)Successfully develop a residential component that appeals to consumers seeking an urban experience with access to downtown Lowell, rail access to Boston or highway access to the Route 3 and Interstate 495 corridors.

    4)Create a new place that respects the pedestrian-friendly urban character of the City with buildings that meet the sidewalks and active first-floor uses, as well as well-designed sidewalks, street trees, and lighting.

    5)Acknowledge and reflect the historic canals as a significant amenity on the site.
    Continue progress to make the area safer, reducing crime by creating an active street presence, a significant population and ‘eyes on the street’ during day and evening hours.

    6)Develop sites around the canal walk that will make the walkways more inviting and interesting, while also creating origins and destinations along the walkways.

    7)Significantly increase the City's tax revenue and employment base from these parcels.

    8)Integrate with related planning and development projects in the area including the upgrading of Middlesex Street, improvement of pedestrian connections to the Gallagher Terminal, the development of the canal walks, as well as the proposed expansion of transit to support Downtown circulation.

    9)Respond effectively to market forces and demands that support and reward the Master Developer’s investment in the project.

    10)Incorporate planning for energy efficiency and sustainability in the redevelopment of the site, including, where feasible, the use of renewable energy sources and district heating and cooling systems."

    Only (7) establishes the objective of the tax base and employment, and all the others do nothing to promote that objective. The city planners must realize that commercial/industrial development is the key to a stabilized tax rate. It may be harder to do, but isn't that true of most everything that is worth doing?


    Posted by: JP at December 8, 2006 10:28 AM

    If we place the Nanotech Center and Juducial Center in the Hamilton Canal District it will even further diminish the potential tax base increase because they will be public facilites. The other reality is that having the homeless shelter in the area doesn't exactly inspire retail devlopment either.

    Something else I would like to note. The council failed to keep the tax rate consistent, lowering it after property valuations (which are dictated by the market) went higher. The council can blame the Cox administration all they want, but they are ultimately responsible for the budget and for leaving all the excess capacity on the table to keep the tax rate artifically low (and in turn getting re-elected). They had no trouble approving the parking garage without the revenue to pay for it and dipping into free cash, but they refuse to accept responsibility for failing to have a consistent fiscal policy by setting a fair and actual tax rate.

    I understand trying to keep taxes low to help people on fixed incomes and to encourage people to come to the city, but at some point you have to accept what the market dictates and pay your bills. No one on the council should be totally surprised at the current financial situation. Quite a few things have gone up in cost such as fuel and healthcare. Can we expect the dollar cost of taxes not to? If we keep a consistent tax rate percentage and our economy grows(and hopefully our incomes), we will see the revenue growth to pay for our services and for these upcoming projects.

    Posted by: Smokey at December 9, 2006 11:59 AM

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