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November 7, 2006
Day of Decision: Patrick and GOP win
As I write this first thing Tuesday morning, I am convinced that Democrat Deval Patrick will become the next governor of Massachusetts, and the first black man in the state to hold that honored office. Good for him and the state's voters.
Kerry Healey, meanwhile, will go down as the second female candidate in as many elections to lose. It's good to see political parties taking female candidates seriously but it's not so good that they can't get elected for the big enchilada. There are a lot of factors why Healey didn't resonate with voters, and I don't believe for one second it was her so-called negative ads. I found nothing negative about them. They spoke the truth. The same goes for Patrick's ad that attacked Healey over housing for the elderly. She made the comment about some of the state's elderly being "overhoused." Patrick's people made up a misleading ad and ran with it. Why didn't anyone complain? It's a good question. Most of the state's media were against Healey just because she was a Republican and part of Mitt Romney's administration. They didn't think like the editors at The Boston Globe, who are losing circulation just like the state is losing population. Any coincidence?
But Patrick is a good campaigner, even if he remains a mystery. One politician described him as a "Medicine Man" promising to cure all the state's problems. That's unlikely. Deval Patrick, however, could make a difference if he governs with courage and conviction - a pair of tough rules to follow for any Democrat who must take orders from so many other Democrats in this state. There will be a euphoria on Beacon Hill unseen since the Dukakis era. Hands will be reaching into Deval's pockets from all angles. Hopefully, Patrick can say "no" with the same conviction in which he said "yes" to change. We'll see.
Now, turning my attention to the national scene, I predict that the Republicans will retain control of the U.S. Senate by 2 seats and the U.S. House by 2 seats, leaving Democrat Nancy Pelosi to check into a political rehab facility in California because of an election breakdown.
The Democrats have been so giddy over the prospects of regaining control they have basically turned off the public and rejuvenated Republicans who weren't going to vote. Indeed, the GOP is a disgrace in Washington, and if Republicans do maintain control, I would like to see a major purge of the leadership. Don Hastert has to go.
If Democrats do gain control, however, it won't be a bad thing. I see their margin of victory as one or two seats in the House and one in the Senate - if it happens - and that slight edge would force the parties to work for common ground on issues. The idea that our government can cleanse itself in non-violent elections is the greatest seed ever planted in our democracy. To think that as many as 40 to 50 incumbents could lose elections in the House, Senate and gubernatorial elections is entirely gratifying for the people whose duty it is to vote for their leadership. Two years ago, 98 percent of all incumbents won re-election in the congressional election. Not today, and that's a great tribute to America's people who still care about the government process.
Posted by at November 7, 2006 8:44 AM
Comments
Right on about the negative ad aspect. I just returned from some time in Ohio, and you should see the way the candidates attack each other there. Makes the Healy-Patrick race look like a lovefest.
You're also right about what's going to happen at the Statehouse. There's no way Patrick will say "No" to the gladhanders. More and more middle-minded people will leave the state over the next four years, leaving Massachusetts as a nice little shelter for liberals who don't like New York or California living.
Posted by: McFilthy & McNasty at November 7, 2006 2:19 PM
I agree with you on the Patrick/Healey thing. Its too bad how it is falling out, but I think in the long run this could be an opportunity that the local GOP could use to clean house as well.
They really need to get back to creating grassroots efforts (both parties do, really). There is no suppport for local candidates, no work to train candidates on how to run, and no resources to help them succeed.
The top brass in the parties only want to work with themselves, control all the spending and salaries, and then complain that they get nowhere.
Romney had the idea in supporting a lot of candidates, but he should have focussed on a few to get started, and then build up over years.
Now, the GOP has 4 years to target Patrick (to keep his "promises?"), record the tax increases and spending proposals that will come up, track the exodus of jobs and workers, and be ready with a good candidate and a perhaps a new set of grass root organizations (county level?) to get the party started again.
Kennedy is not going to last for long, being prepared for a candidate in 4 or 6 years would be a smart thing to do now (can we get Rudy to move to Massachusetts?)
Posted by: Shawn at November 7, 2006 2:33 PM
Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy....
I give you credit for making a prediction. But I have to point out how wrong your predictions usually are.
Posted by: Dr. No at November 9, 2006 12:13 AM
Dr. No, if you have read The Sun regularly instead of having it read to you occasionally over the phone,you would know that the 2006 election day prediction I made represented the first time I have been wrong in 20 years. The fact of the matter is, I am running 92% correct in the 26 predictions I have made, not counting my personal family and friendly prediction. Yes, I have omelet on my face, but as I told the WUML radio audience this morning, I came within 57,000 votes nationally of being right on the money in 12 races. Just think, I would have been the only one who was correct, if it had panned out. I give credit to the Democrats for getting out the vote. The national GOP was a disgrace, and if it is one thing Americans won't tolerate, it is corruption. It's just too bad a moderate, well-liked Republican like Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee was defeated by a one-trick pony Democrat.
Posted by: jim campanini at November 9, 2006 2:52 PM
Oh boy... what a zippy comeback about the phone. You're so clever.
Moving along...
It was unfortunate that good Republicans like Chaffe and Bass got kicked out along with the corrupt bunch. Baby went out with the bathwater, I guess.
But, at the least, their losses have helped to break the corrupt, indecisive monopoly that the Republicans have held. So their loss was not in vain...
Posted by: Dr. No at November 9, 2006 4:01 PM
