Jim,
I would love to take the time to read your blog and post...but for crying out loud they are too you know whatin' long!!!

Soul Assasin, you are right. they are too long. And they are chocker-block full of information. That's what separates me from bloggers who just speak their minds without backing it up with information. But I will try to economize my words in the future. I will begin now but not signing off with any meaningful salutation.

"Councilors, at Cox's insistence, continued to use free cash to avoid raising taxes substantially."

Do you really mean that? It seemed, at least in the past year, that Cox was more cautious than the councilors in applying free cash to the tax rate control.

As for the snow and ice overrun, was that a line item in the FY 2007 budget (the overlay figure)? If so, it has been accounted for, and should not be one of the surprises.

I’d like to respond to this blog post which seems to claim that I left Chelmsford because I knew that the Town’s finances were going to be tight in FY08. While the post has some good points there is a need for clarification in a number of areas.

First, I did not leave Chelmsford because of the financial issues facing the Town. I was looking for new opportunities and challenges that a city like Lowell could provide with its myriad of issues and its size…both population and organization. I was certainly well aware of the budget issues of Chelmsford as it had been my practice to do multi-year fiscal forecasts for years using actual information and trend analyses of expenditures and revenues. In fact, there is a Chelmsford Charter requirement to prepare such forecasts.

The identified FY08 budget “shortfall� for Chelmsford is a forecast, not yet reality. By looking ahead into the next several years actions can be taken to close any gap between expected revenues and expenditures. Decisions can be made ahead of time on affordable salary increases, new positions and capital projects. I have made it very clear that it is this type of practice that needs to be implemented here in Lowell. The recent credit analysis by Moody’s supported such efforts. By way of example, Chelmsford has been able to retain its bond rating during difficult fiscal conditions, in part, because of its financial planning and management systems.

Jim’s post states that had I remained in Chelmsford I’d be facing my most difficult financial stretch. I cannot concur as I had the experience of managing the Town’s finances in the early 1990’s and early 2000’s when state aid was slashed. And, last year at this time, as Jim surely knows, I was forecasting an FY07 budget problem of approximately $4 million. Fortunately, the state increased local aid, the Town turned the corner on health insurance increases, savings were identified, and budgets were held within the funds that were available. The entire budget effort was difficult but absent advance planning and management Chelmsford might have been in a similar to Lowell with an actual budget deficit for the current fiscal year.

The problem in Lowell is that the current year budget was passed with revenue assumptions that were not realistic and expenditure levels that did not cover known costs such as increases in energy costs and the prior year snow and ice deficit. While it was legal to overspend this account in FY06 there should have been some consideration of how this deficit was going to be covered in FY07. This is particularly true given the extremely high estimate for available free cash that would be available at the close-out of FY06, and then its subsequent use to seemingly balance the proposed budget. It is poor practice to use free cash to fund ongoing operations but it is extremely dangerous to anticipate what that figure might be and then use that figure as a revenue.

I certainly appreciate Jim’s concerns about the impact that a tax increase would have had on working families in FY03 but that concern still exists today. However, today there are fewer options. A better approach would have been moderate increases through the years, maintenance of reserves, and use of free cash for certain one time expenditures like infrastructure improvements that are identified in a planned capital program, which the City also lacks.

Lowell’s FY07 budget problem is very serious. I had identified a shortfall of about $6.37 million based upon the information that I had available in early August. Not much has changed but already some circumstances have changed that shortfall calculation by about $1 million to a current problem of $5.26 million. The changes to date have included almost a $200,000 reduction in the Greater Lowell Vocational assessment, about $400,000 in additional new growth through aggressive identification and assessment of personal property, and a potential for boosting estimated local receipts by about $500,000. This last change has been made possible by getting the tax agreement with the co-generation energy plant back on track. The recent sale of the facility produced payment of $1.9 million in back payments that were due to the City. Importantly, these funds will help our overall budget condition in FY07 and hopefully allow us to make a case for boosting our receipt estimates by the amount due to us for FY07.

Moving forward we need to identify other revenues and budget savings and then look at increases in property taxes. As part of our overall strategy we should also look at measures that can be taken to reduce the impact of a tax increase on those of limited means.

I won’t characterize one community’s fiscal future as being brighter than another. Clearly, there are a number of opportunities for growth here in Lowell. While the fiscal challenges of the communities are different, the practices that will result in solutions are similar. These practices include financial planning, establishing financial management policies, building reserves, identifying areas for budget savings, and implementing a plan for capital improvements. With these steps the fiscal future of Lowell will be very bright and the City will be a showpiece for its current and future residents.

Jim:

Where are you getting the info on the classifications (Westford="rural growth"). I can't find reference to that anywhere in the funding formula info on the DoE website. What I have found is that Chelmsford (and Littleton to a lesser extent) are receiving far less a percentage of their target aid than Westford. I think each district is supposed to be receiving full target aid within four years.

Is there something else going on in the legislature that has kept Chelmsford's dollars at bay? I was a bit surprised that no one from Chelmsford or Littleton came forward to run against the incumbent reps over this issue.

Jim:

As you can see by reading Bernie's response to your post, Mr. Lynch did not leave Chelmsford because he was fleeing a fiscal crisis in the future. What we are facing here in Chelmsford next year is pretty standard.....it happens just about every year....we have projected budgetary shortfalls, and then, with excellent town management, we are able to find ways to balance our budgets and continue providing the important town services the people of Chelmsford have come to expect.

You also can see, by reading Bernie's response set forth above, that he is an excellent communicator, and willing to address anyone's concerns, even though they may be misguided and far off the mark.

Bernie has been a panelist on my "Politically Incorrect" cable TV show 22 times so far, which demonstrates his willingness to communicate his positions on the issues in an open and honest way. I'm sure that he will improve Lowell in the future as much as he did Chelmsford during his many years as Town Manager of our wonderful town.

I have lived in Chelmsford for the past 10 years and took the day off to get on a big yellow school bus in Chelmsford twice to go with other residents to the State House and lobby for a change in Chapter 70 education aid. My husband and I have three children in the Chelmsford schools and with our professional income and our current house assessment, we pay quite a bit in taxes to the state and to the town.

I think that Bernie Lynch and Dr. Moser, the school superintendent, did not inform the town of the seriousness of the town's budget concern/issues in a rigorous and timely fashion. I do not remember Bernie Lynch addressing this issue in depth except for his last letter to the Chelmsford residents. Last spring, Dr. Moser announced school staff cuts. These cuts included increasing class size in some of the elemementary schools grades to 25 students per teacher. (This fact, which I initially heard through the parent's grapevine, was never clearly spelled out in the school superintendent's televised presentation last spring but detailed in an elementary school principal's email to the parents a few weeks later.)

When Bernie Lynch turned his application in to Lowell, several townspeople told me that cutting the townwide leaf collection was a unpleasant surprise to them and a clear sign that other town services would need to be cut in the future. I rely on certain people in the town to keep me abreast of serious issues as they arise, and I feel that Bernie Lynch and Dr. Moser were more concerned with keeping up the appearance that "all was well" instead of communicating and addressing the seriousness of the town's financial issues and outlining the possible impact of those issues to the town and to ALL of the Chelmsford residents, especially those residents who do not currently have children in the schools.

I realize that some of the difficulties might come from the fact that Bernie Lynch and Dr. Moser did not work well together, and this situation needs to be corrected before Chelmsford residents are asked to make the difficult decisions that lie ahead.

Diane Weir posted:
"Is there something else going on in the legislature that has kept Chelmsford's dollars at bay? I was a bit surprised that no one from Chelmsford or Littleton came forward to run against the incumbent reps over this issue."

I moved to Chelmsford 2 years ago and am very interested in running against an incumbent in the future. I have no experience in politics so I am working on that right now; as the feedback I've gotten from townsfolk is dreary. Most say that it's impossible to get into town politics unless you've been in Chelmsford forever and know everyone on the board. Any ideas? Thanks!

Rachel Goclawski

Hello Jim,

I enjoy reading your comments and are always
informative. I never realized that Chelmsford's
financial situation was in so much trouble. I
think Mr. Lynch should have addressed this issue
and openly discussed the problem before taking
over as city manager in Lowell. One of Mr. Lynch's
first public announcements was the six million
dollar shortage we have in Lowell. I don't get
it.