« Scotty Boyle: Broiled and Roasted | Main | Cox for Council Bash? »

August 3, 2006

Harshbarger for Patrick: Big Deal or Not?

Does Democratic gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick gain anything by winning the endorsement of former Attorney General Scott Harshbarger? Yes and no.
Yes, because Harshbarger was once a close friend of present Attorney General Tom Reilly. If you take this as a shot at Reilly, well, Patrick comes out on top.
On the other hand,, Harshbarger is a failed candidate for governor himself. He lost to Republican Paul Cellucci. He hasn't run a statewide election in eight years. Most registered Independents probably don't care one way or the other who Harshbarger is endorsing and why.
If Patrick thinks he can gain from Harshbarger's wisdom, good for him. I guess it's better to have the endorsement than none at all, but Harshbarger isn't going to do much unless he can raise money for Patrick. And I don't see it happening.
What I do find interesting is that Patrick hasn't mounted a TV ad campaign. Still, he maintains a slight lead on Reilly and Chris Gabrieli in most Democratic primary polls. That's a good sign. Reilly and Gabrieli are making the push on the airwaves. Neither has any stimulating ads from what I've seen, but we'll know soon enough if they've had an effect. New polls should be coming out any day now.
Patrick's holding off on his spending until Labor Day, when people get focused on the campaigns. It could be a winning strategy . A late ad blitz could cement his lead and galvanize supporters.
Reilly, however, has a strong ground network in place. Plus, he's got Middlesex DA Martha Coakley, who's running unopposed for his AG's job, pulling for him in the state's most populated county.
It's going to be an interesting final six weeks to the primary. Right now, I'm handicapping the race like this: Patrick, 3-1; Reilly, 2-1; Gabrieli, 6-1.

Posted by JimC at August 3, 2006 5:12 PM