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July 14, 2006

STATEHOUSE INSIDER: PATRICK PEAKING

I spoke with a Democratic pollster today who does internal polls for one of the three candidates: Here's what he's found out in his latest overnighter of 450 Democratic party voters::
Patrick has the momentum with 35 percent of the vote from respondents. He said it's a good base and if Patrick could push his poll numbers to 40 percent, he'd be a in a good position to sustain a decent level of support when his campaign advertising kicks in in August. THE DOWNSIDE: He said Patrick's numbers have held steady now for two weeks. While solid, the numbers suggest a possible peak in his popularity.
Reilly's poll numbers are 31 percent and unchanged from a previous poll. The pollster suggested that Reilly is hanging in there and might get a bounce from the Big Dig tragedy/scandal. Or it could go the other way if he is portrayed as doing very little to probe the sloth that contributed to the tragic death of Milena Del Valle. It'll be interesting to see how voters interpret Reilly's TV face time, which amounts to free advertising, according to the pollster. THE DOWNSIDE: Reilly's numbers are stagnant and have gone down 6-7 points in recent weeks. While they appear to have leveled off, another Reillyesque gaffe could prove fatal.
Gabriell's poll numbers moved up one point to 23 percent, a recent surge that is attributed to a million-dollar investment in TV advertising. The businessman's base appears to be solidifying in the Boston area, but there is still a lack of recognition in suburban areas, according to preliminary poll results. THE DOWNSIDE: Gabrieli's boost has been driven by TV advertising, while both Patrick and Reilly haven't spent much of anything yet to push their profiles. Reilly has $4.5 million in the bank and Patrick has $1.5 million. Of course, Gabrieli's personal fortune dwarfs that of Reilly and Patrick, and he has said he is willing to spend up to $15 million in his gubernatorial campaign.

THE INSIDER'S EDGE: "It's shaping up as a real dogfight where the candidates might be within 5 percentage points of each other at the end," said the internal pollster who asked not to be identified. He predicted that the winner on Sept. 19 Primary Day will receive less than 40 percent of the total votes cast, but as high as 38 percent.
Looking ahead to November, he said, "the tightness of the race and the quality of the candidates" has put a new focus on the Democratic party and is likely to generate a good response from the public. "The Primary Day winner should get a good bounce with all the attention. The question is whether that attention can be sustained for a run against the Republican candidate waiting in the wings," he said.
He said the odds are much more favorable that a Democrat will win the corner office than two months ago.
CAMPY THE CONTRARIAN SAYS: The Democratic leadership's dismantling of the Constitutional Convention, where the citizens' rights petition concerning gay marriage was denied a fair hearing until after the election, will do more to doom the Democratic primary candidates' chances than anything else come November. Can 180,000 petition signers control an election? If it's close they can - and they will.
This is why the Democrats can't win. They stand for the lunch cart, and nothing else.

Posted by Jim Campanini, editor of The Sun.

Posted by JimC at July 14, 2006 3:25 PM